Probabilities disguising uncertainty

‘In this situation, what you started getting was probabilities that disguised uncertainty as opposed to actually providing you with more useful information.’

Barack Obama commenting on making the decision whether to attack a target which evidence suggested could be Osama Bin Laden

This quote is a drawn from an article that John Kay published on his website under the title “The point of probabilities”. The point he is making is

• Similar to one touched on in a Bank Underground post that I discussed in a recent post on my blog.
• Short and worth reading

Tony

Author: From the Outside

After working in the Australian banking system for close to four decades, time to read, write and reflect on what I have learned. My primary area of expertise is bank capital management but this blog aims to offer a bank insider's outside perspective on banking, capital, economics, finance and risk. View all posts by From the Outside