I know we are expected to believe Expected Loss Loan provisioning (IFRS9 / CECL) will make the banking system less procyclical. I very much doubt that is true and expect it will, if anything, be more rather than less procyclical.
I recently flagged a note by Adrian Docherty that set out why this is likely to be so. Now I offer Tony Hughes of Moody’s Analytics who wrote a good piece here explaining why this new approach to loan loss provisions will in fact add to procyclicality. It is a quick read but worth the effort.